Authors Tom Shales and James Miller attribute ESPN’s rise to nine specific events, but more generally, three sections emerge: Bill Rasmussen’s efforts to sell ESPN to investors and the eventual power struggle that ensues once big money gets infused into the company; the key managerial decisions and cultural trends that created an environment for ESPN to become the leading sports network in the world; and the struggles a mature, highly visible organization has in maintaining its culture and identity in an increasingly scrutinized media landscape filled with high-priced, high-maintenance talent with a history of questionable behavior.

Some highlights: the race against bankruptcy in the early days of ESPN and the eventual role Getty Oil plays in funding the start-up company; the vision behind SportsCenter and its eventual rise as a legitimate news reporting organization despite its “entertainment” roots; the contract negotiations with the NFL and MLB that ultimately legitimized the network in the eyes of the cable providers; the advertiser and cable subscriber dual revenue stream that allowed ESPN to aggressively compete against their network adversaries when bidding for television rights; the emergence of the internet and its impact on news gathering and news reporting operations; the myriad of behavorial incidents involving personalities both in front of and behind the cameras; and the cultural backlash encountered by ESPN once they become perched atop the sports scene.

The “oral history” format makes for an awkward read at times. Narratives jump from perspective to perspective and the differing takes on a specific event can leave the reader wondering what really happened. However, it has a conversational tone and a fly-on-the-wall perspective that makes the book very engaging. You do feel like you’re sitting inside ESPN getting the insi  de dope on some very public events.

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Last week, I diligently prepared a post outlining what I believed to be statistical valid reasons why, when returning from injury, Seneca Wallace should get his starting job back and Jake Delhomme should not. Of course, none of this accounted for Colt McCoy. I’m glad I waited a week because McCoy must be named the Browns starting quarterback for the rest of the season.

The Browns plans for 2010 did not include McCoy. Simply put, Delhomme would start and Wallace would be the backup. The veterans would keep the quarterback seat warm while McCoy learned the nuances of the professional game. But injuries to both starters thrust McCoy into the spotlight and the rookie has played well in upset wins over New Orleans and New England. Even in a loss to Pittsburgh the rookie debutant looked poised and capable.

For those who draft professional football’s unwritten rules, the notion that a starter cannot lose his job to injury seems to be one of the more interesting debates this season. The Browns, along with the Eagles earlier in the season, have become ground zero for that discussion. But if the guy winning the job has no previous track record, and his body of work exceeds that of his predecessors and is not simply the byproduct of a hot streak, it might be possible the replacement is simply a better player. And should get the starting nod. This is the case with Colt.

Delhomme’s performance, not his injury, justifies benching. His four interceptions over six quarters matches the four interceptions both McCoy and Wallace have combined to throw in the other 30 quarters of Browns football. McCoy threw two in his debut in Pittsburgh and hasn’t thrown a pick since. Wallace had one each in a loss to Kansas City and a win over Cincinnati. In both games, Wallace’s QB rating was less than 80. Wallace did have QB ratings over 100 against both Baltimore and the second half against Atlanta. However, despite those promising performances, the Browns offense didn’t get it done. In the Atlanta game, Wallace’s pick was taken back for a score and essentially put the game to bed.

McCoy’s numbers have been slightly less impressive. But in his games, the Browns have gone 2-2 against some of the toughest defenses in the game - Pittsburgh, New England, and New York. His late-game drive against the Jets differentiates him from Wallace. He put the Browns on his back and drove them down the field for the tying TD. When he got the ball back in OT, he was taking them down for the winning score. Chansi Stuckey’s fumble prevented another win, but simply put, the Browns quarterback didn’t give the game away. Based on historical trends with Browns QBs that is enough to warrant continued reps as the starter.

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After the Heat's 88-80 loss to the Celtics last night, Lebron James might be overstating it just a bit when talking about how much talent the Heat really have. "It's a feel-out process," James said. "When you have so many options, it's something I'm not accustomed to, having that many threats out on the court at the same time."

Ignoring the slight at his former teammates, so many options and threats? Wade spent most of the second half on the bench, so beyond Chris Bosh and his massive 8 points, the options that needed sorting out are as follows: Joel Anthony, James Jones, Eddie House, Carlos Arroyo, Udonis Haslem, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas.

Wow. I guess I overlooked his tendency for hyperbole when he played for the Cavaliers because we as fans wanted to believe the Cavaliers
were better than advertised. With the Heat, the product will never match the advertisement. So the hyperbole simply sounds like a man
trying to convince himself this is a better basketball situation. The Heat will win because of the Big 3. Its how the NBA game works. But to tell yourself there were actually options last night against the Celtics would deny the obvious. LeBron was the best player on the floor last night. The Heat, however, were not the best team.

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The conservative playcalling after Jake Delhomme's late first-half
interception and lack of carries for Peyton Hillis after his second
fumble did the Browns in today. Make no mistake, the interception and
the fumbles were inexcusable. But so was the collective shuttering of
the windows by the Browns on offense in an attempt to cling to the
slim 14-10 lead they established after a promising first 29 minutes of
football. I get it: protect Delhomme's fragile confidence, running
backs can't put the ball on the ground, this team still needs to learn
how to win. This team won't be anywhere near the playoffs anytime soon
playing like they did today. But they also won't get anywhere near the
playoffs if our game plan is to score a few and then try to hang on.

Field position in the second half leaned substantially in the
Buccaneer's favor. And what did Cleveland do to try and change that?
Nothing. Nada. Unless check-downs and off-tackle runs count. Terry
Pluto called the Browns fragile. News to the Browns coaching staff:
the Browns aren't a priceless valuable you handle with care. They're a
young team hungry to win. Cut them loose. Last year's 1-11 start told
us everything we need to know about this team if you keep them tied
down.

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IMG_0203.MOV Watch on Posterous

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What I will say, however, is that Clevelanders appreciate substance
over style. Authenticity over packaged image. But we were duped and
embarrassed. And we're pissed. And, yes, we'll get over it and move
on. But probably not as quickly as those with less skin in the game
would. Usually we're left to do this alone on our own time. So excuse
us while we vent, burn jerseys, and do anything else other than
discuss NBA basketball or the Miami Three. In fact, everyone else
should give it a shot - the experts, the insiders, the opinionaires,
the clowns. Express an opinion that reaches beyond a sound bite. Stop
telling others how to feel. It'll make you less of a prick.

Moving on...

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On the eve of the 2010 NBA Playoffs, I thought it would be fun to sit down and take a statistical look at the first round matchups. A few fellow Cavs fans have been asking me if we have anything to fear in Chicago, and of course being a Cleveland sports fan, its impossible to not be terrified at the prospect of suffering a stunning first round loss in a season were Cleveland look likely candidates for a NBA title. So I decided to play with some numbers to put the collective fears into context and also see if there are any other first round matchups worth tuning in. This is especially important in Ohio where the games in the intensely competitive Western Conference will be decided after midnight. Gotta see if the loss of sleep gets rewarded with some awesome basketball.

Note: The two tools I've used to generate these predictions are not my own. First, Jeff Sagarin's NBA Ratings available at http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba0910.htm serve as the team power ratings. Second, I've repurposed Wayne Winston's spurscavs82.xls model from his book Mathletics. His website can be found at http://www.waynewinston.com. I've used these tools becuase both authors made them available, however, I want to be clear they are not mine nor is my intent to portray them as mine. So on to the analysis:

Eastern Conference

(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (8) Chicago Bulls - Cleveland 91% chance to win series
On paper, this series appears to be the biggest mismatch of all the first round matchups. But Chicago and Cleveland tied the regular season series at 2-2 and while it is likely Cleveland will move on to the second round, it may not be the easy four-game sweep many Cavs fans expect.

(2) Orlando Magic vs (7) Charlotte Bobcats - Orlando 85% chance to win series
The defending Eastern Conference champion Orlando Magic will more than likely find their way into the second round as playoff debutantes Charlotte prepare for the franchise's first ever playoff series. Orlando's talent and inside presence will prove too much for the pesky Bobcats.

(3) Atlanta Hawks vs (6) Milwaukee Bucks - Atlanta 72% chance to win series
Milwaukee earned a surprise spot in the NBA Playoffs and a matchup with Atlanta, a team looking to find a way to get deeper into the playoffs after coming up short last season. Atlanta will get a shot at division rival Orlando in the second round since the Bucks will be without starting center Andrew Bogut.

(4) Boston Celtics vs (5) Miami Heat - Boston 61% chance to win series
This series holds all the star power as Garnett, Pierce, and Allen faceoff against Dwayne Wade in a compelling first round matchup. But like the other first round matchups in the Eastern Conference, the higher seed will hold, setting up an even more exciting second round contest with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Western Conference

(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs (8) Oklahoma City Thunder - Los Angeles 65% chance to win series
I know, this sounds crazy, but the Thunder are much better than most realize. In the Western Conference, earning the eighth seed and a matchup with the defending champs doesn't feel like much of a reward, but this might just be the must-see series of the first round. Phil Jackson's recent outbursts against the officiating and Kevin Durant might just prove prescient...I think the Zen Master knows Kobe and crew are in for a fight.

(2) Dallas Mavericks vs (7) San Antonio Spurs - San Antonio 51% chance to win series
Shocking. The Mavericks clearly have been the second best team in the Western Conference all season, but not even home court advantage gives Dallas a boost to overcome San Antonio. This matchup certainly speaks to the parity out West, because after running the model 10,000 times, the Spurs still earned the slight edge thanks to some rounding up.

(3) Phoenix Suns vs (6) Portland Trailblazers - Phoenix 63% chance to win series
The model doesn't account for the recent injury to Brandon Roy, but nonetheless, the Suns should be able to dispatch Portland with a solid effort. Portland did battle hard in the ultra-competitive Northwest Division while Phoenix bested weaker Pacific foes in Sacramento, the Clippers, and Golden State, but Phoenix has a bit more experience.

(4) Denver Nuggets vs (5) Utah Jazz - Utah 51% chance to win series
Denver has been the trendy pick to oust the Lakers from atop the Western Conference perch for two seasons now but they'll be lucky to get out of the first round matcup with divison rival Utah. Despite the identical records and Denver earning home court, Utah looks to have a slight edge in getting at the Lakers in the next round.

The Western Conference clearly has the more exciting matchups as the bottom four seeds are much stronger than the bottom four seeds in the East. The playoffs in the East won't get going until the second round whereas the first round out West will be make or break for every team other than the Lakers and Suns. If you're inclinded to gamble...putting a few bucks on the Jazz and Spurs while parlaying the top 4 in the East might turn out to be a decent investment.

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Started toying with Tableau Public this evening and conducted a small fantasy baseball analysis to get a feel for the software and service. It's a simple scatterplot with groupings by position ranked by total points scored last season. I hope to expand upon it as I learn how to do more with Tableau Public, but in the short term, it's a helpful visualization so you can quickly see the marginal value of certain positions and performers.

First basemen clearly lead the scoring thanks to Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Ryan Howard top scorers. Third base stands out as surprisingly weak with Mark Reynolds and Evan Longoria tops at the position. Check it out and let me know what you think.

Sheet 1

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